One thing to change: Anecdotes aren’t data

first_img Related Many people are convinced that the country is irredeemably racist, sexist, homophobic, and sexually assaultive, whereas all of these scourges are in steady decline (albeit not quickly enough). People on both the right and left have become cynical about global institutions because they think that the world is becoming poorer and more war-torn, whereas in recent decades global measures of extreme poverty and battle deaths have plummeted.People are terrified of nuclear power (the most scalable form of carbon-free energy) because of images of Three Mile Island (which killed no one), Fukushima (which killed no one; the deaths were caused by the tsunami and a panicked, unnecessary evacuation), and Chernobyl (which killed fewer people than are killed by coal every day). They imagine that fossil fuels can be replaced by solar energy, without doing the math on how many square miles would have to be tiled with solar panels to satisfy the world’s vastly growing thirst for electricity. And they think that voluntary sacrifices, like unplugging laptop chargers, are a sensible way to deal with climate change.How do we change this destructive statistical illiteracy and disdain for data? We need to make “factfulness” (as Hans, Ola, and Anna Rosling call it) an inherent part of the culture of education, journalism, commentary, and politics. An awareness of the infirmity of unaided human intuition should be part of the conventional wisdom of every educated person. Guiding policy or activism by conspicuous events, without reference to data, should come to be seen as risible as guiding them by omens, dreams, or whether Jupiter is rising in Sagittarius.— Steven PinkerJohnstone Family Professor of PsychologyNext week: Abraham “Avi” Loeb discusses why he wants more scientists to think like children. Giving ‘good’ a rigorous inspection Steven Pinker’s history of thought Steven Pinker makes case for human progress in ‘Enlightenment Now’ Wielding data against doom and gloomcenter_img Greene, Pinker, and Singer trade ideas on how to be moral — and happy This is the first part of a series called Focal Point, in which we ask a range of Harvard faculty members to answer the same question. Focal PointSteven PinkerQuestion: What is one thing wrong with the world that you would change, and why?Too many leaders and influencers, including politicians, journalists, intellectuals, and academics, surrender to the cognitive bias of assessing the world through anecdotes and images rather than data and facts.Our president assumed office with a dystopian vision of American “carnage” in an era in which violent crime rates were close to historical lows. His Republican predecessor created a massive new federal department and launched two destructive wars to protect Americans against a hazard, terrorism, that most years kills fewer people than bee stings and lightning strikes. In the year after the 9/11 attacks, 1,500 Americans who were scared away from flying perished in car crashes, unaware that a Boston-LA air trip has the same risk as driving 12 miles.One death from a self-driving Tesla makes worldwide headlines, but the 1.25 million deaths each year from human-driven vehicles don’t. Small children are traumatized by school drills that teach them how to hide from rampage shooters, who have an infinitesimal chance of killing them compared with car crashes, drownings, or, for that matter, non-rampage killers, who slay the equivalent of a Sandy Hook and a half every day. Several heavily publicized police shootings have persuaded activists that minorities are in mortal danger from racist cops, whereas three analyses (two by Harvard faculty, Sendhil Mullainathan and Roland Fryer) have shown no racial bias in police shootings. “How do we change this destructive statistical illiteracy and disdain for data?” The Daily Gazette Sign up for daily emails to get the latest Harvard news. ‘What could be more interesting than how the mind works?’last_img read more

Mary Louise Moody

first_imgNeal’s Funeral Home306 S Walnut St.Osgood, In 47037812-689-4262After a long time illness, Mary Louise Moody, age 71 of Greensburg, In quietly passed away at her home on Sunday evening, January 8, 2017 with her family at her side. She was the daughter of the late George Stewart and Loretta Spaulding Stewart Butler. Mary was united in marriage to Dale Andrew Moody on January 11, 1964. They were blessed with three children.Mary’s family stated she was a very loving mother, always there for them even through her last years of being ill. Before her illness, she had enjoyed her flowers and just watching the birds. She used to go to St. Louis in Batesville and play bingo but later had to be content playing on her laptop. She will be sadly missed by her family.Survivors include her husband, Dale Andrew Moody, son; Phillip Moody and daughter Paula Moody all of home. One daughter, Tracy (Jason) Moody of Laurel, In also survives along with eight grandchildren and one great grandchild.Two brothers, Guiles Stewart of Greensburg and Harvey Butler of Batesville; four sisters; Bonnie Jenkins of Morris, In , Phyllis McKeown of Milan, Tina Clift of Osgood and Diana Reed of Colorado. She was preceded in death by one brother, George Stewart Jr and one sister, Jean Carel.Services will be private. Any memorials may go to the family c/o the funeral home.Arrangements by: Neal’s Funeral Homewww.nealsfuneralhome.netlast_img read more

Trap bemused by Bale talk

first_img “It would be good if he can play, maybe in a friendly my habit would be to guarantee club managers of my intention to only play a player for 45 minutes. “But it is not my habit to speak about what other managers ask of their players. I don’t know what he will do with Bale.” Trapattoni’s squad has been heavily hit by injuries ahead of the friendly contest, as Ireland build towards World Cup qualifiers with Sweden and Austria. Anthony Pilkington, Simon Cox, David Forde, Sean St Ledger, Aiden McGeady and Stephen Quinn are among those absent. Norwich midfielder Pilkington’s knee injury comes after three previous occasions where he has had to with withdraw from the national squad. But Trapattoni has no doubt Pilkington wants to represent Ireland and the Italian also made it clear he does not believe Pilkington has done anything wrong in not reporting to have his injury checked He said: “We have a good relationship with our doctor, he knows many club doctors and with Pilkington I also asked Wes (Hoolahan) and he told me his knee is swollen, he has been having injections and he has pain and I am confident about the professional doctor. “The doctor is important, he is not a manager, it is a specialist position with a big responsibility.” He added: “The clubs pay the players and they can tell them not to report for international duty. I have asked FIFA and UEFA to have rules where when a player is called by his country he must go. But for UEFA and FIFA you cannot take control over the clubs. “Only if FIFA and UEFA introduce an obligation in the rules can our federation say you have to come here to be checked before you go back. But the club are personal shareholders of the players.” Press Association Ireland boss Giovanni Trapattoni feels no player is worth the £105million fee Real Madrid are reportedly ready to pay for Wales international Gareth Bale. The Tottenham winger has been included in Wales boss Chris Coleman’s squad for Wednesday’s friendly against Ireland in Cardiff, despite his club boss Andre Villas-Boas stating he is unlikely to be fit for their Premier League opener at Crystal Palace due to a foot injury. The 24-year-old continues to be linked with a world record move to Spanish giants Madrid but, no matter his talents as a footballer, Trapattoni insists there is no one player who justifies such a vast expenditure. He said: “Today with the media, and a famous name, the more you speak about players the more the money goes up, especially with all the money in the game. “I once had a great club president in Gianni Agnelli at Juventus, who was head of Fiat. “He had a lot of money, but there were situations when he said I could not spend a lot of money because he had many people working for him who were working class. He told me to look for other players. I remember his words like it is today. “This money (the reported fee for Bale), for me there is no player valued at that much money. “One player cannot win a game on his own. Even players like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pele or Johan Cruyff, all these famous players needed a team.” It remains to be seen whether Bale will play any part at Cardiff City Stadium, but Trapattoni admits he has some empathy with the situation opposite number Coleman finds himself in. He said: “I had this with many teams when I managed Italy. “When there is a friendly game, the players are very busy, and Bale is an important player. last_img read more

Football News Robert Lewandowski helps Bayern Munich avoid humiliating exit from German Cup in thrilling tie

first_img Munich: Robert Lewandowski saved his team from a humiliating German Cup exit as Bayern Munich came from behind to beat second-tier Heidenheim in a 5-4 thriller on Wednesday. Bayern was 2-1 down at half-time having gone down to ten men early in the game, and threw away a two-goal lead in the second half. Yet Lewandowski’s late winner ended a rollercoaster resistance from Heidenheim and sent Bayern into the semi-finals. “I don’t really know what to think of this game,” said Bayern striker Thomas Mueller on Sky Sports. “After such a great start, it should have gone differently for us. We didn’t play well, particularly after the red card, and it doesn’t feel all that good.” Everything seemed to be going according to the script when Leon Goretzka headed Bayern in front from a corner on 12 minutes.             Yet the script went up in flames when Bayern went down to ten men just minutes later. Niklas Suele was initially booked for a challenge on Robert Andrich, but a video review convinced the referee that Suele had denied Andrich a goalscoring opportunity. The red card galvanised Heidenheim and they forced several chances before Robert Glatzel headed in the equaliser just before the half-hour mark. Ten minutes later, the Allianz Arena was silenced as Marc Schnatterer fired Heidenheim in front.RELATED      Mueller brought Bayern level after half-time, turning in Lewandowski’s header with a marvellous, swiveling finish. He then returned the favor three minutes later, setting up Lewandowski to restore the lead for Bayern. Serge Gnabry added a fourth for Bayern on 65 minutes, slotting the ball in at the far post at a corner. Yet Glatzel stunned Bayern again when he scored twice in three minutes to make it 4-4. Having pulled a goal back on 74 minutes, the Heidenheim striker completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot.          It ended in disappointment for Heidenheim, however, as a handball at the other end allowed Lewandowski to score the winner with an 84th-minute penalty. Werder Bremen also reached the semi-finals after they eased to a 2-0 win over Schalke thanks to goals from Milot Rashica and Davy Klaassen. Rashica’s dipping shot from outside the area broke the deadlock just after the hour mark. Klaassen slotted in a second shortly afterward to ensure Werder’s place in the last four alongside Bayern, RB Leipzig and old rivals Hamburg.            “We didn’t play very well today but we had the quality to win anyway and we are very happy to be in the semis,” Bremen captain Max Kruse told Sky. The semi-final draw will take place on Sunday. highlights Heidenheim had earlier defeated Schalke in the German Cup.Bayern Munich were reduced to 10 men when Niklas Suele was sent off.Thomas Mueller and Robert Lewandowski were the key.center_img For all the Latest Sports News News, Football News News, Download News Nation Android and iOS Mobile Apps.last_img read more